Category: current
Updated: 26/05/18 : 07:54:33

Exit polls predict landslide today for ‘Yes’

The RTÉ Exit Poll
By Eugene McGloin
Political Editor

EXIT POLLS predict a massive ‘Yes’ to remove the Eighth Amendment from the Constitution when counts are completed today, Saturday.

The margin will be 68% ‘Yes’ to 32% ‘No’ says a nationwide survey for The Irish Times published this morning.

Ipsos MRBI polled 4,000 people at 160 centres after they voted on Friday to make their prediction, with an error expectation of just one percent.

The Irish Times is also predicting a national turnout above 60% in yesterday’s poll.

Connacht, Ulster

A second exit poll has further details emerging this Saturday morning which confirms all trends in yesterday’s vote. 

RTÉ’s poll was conducted by Behaviour & Attitudes among 3,800 people nationwide, with an error margin of just 1.6%.

The big finding locally in RTÉ’s exit poll, announced on the Late Late Show, predicts that in Connacht Ulster the ‘Yes’ vote will top 62%.

Connacht Ulster’s support for ‘Yes’ falls back to 59% support as measured by The Irish Times pollsters.

Either figure would suggest what is seen as the most conservative region in Ireland has heavily backed abortion.

More than any other statistic(s) in both sets of polls, Connacht Ulster will dispel the previous notions of ‘urban rural’ divides.

Older ‘No’

Behaviour & Attitudes’s research for RTÉ suggests the final outcome will be 69.4% ‘Yes’ and 30.4% ‘No.’

Nationally, only voters aged 65-plus said ‘No’ in yesterday’s poll, the RTÉ research uncovered.

Fuller details were reported on a special Saturday edition of Morning Ireland on RTÉ Radio One.

Dublin voted by 4-1 for ‘Yes,’ which nationally attracted 87% to 84% support from the 18-24 age group and the 25-34 age groups, said the RTÉ breakdown.

‘Seismic’ Result

The RTÉ poll more or less mirrors this morning’s prediction by The Irish Times.

The results were described as “seismic” by Lise Hand, political correspondent for the Irish edition of The Times.

She was speaking on RTE’s Late Late Show last night shortly its poll details were published.

The Irish Times / Ipsos MRBI poll

Making History

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar welcome the two findings: “It looks like we will be making history.”

Meanwhile, final tallies are expected early Saturday afternoon from count centres around Ireland.

The formal result will be announced in each county before the national outcome is formally declared.

The count team at Dublin Castle is expected to declare the final nationwide result well before teatime Saturday.

Dust Settles

Recounts seem unlikely in any count centre and it remains to be seen during Saturday if any county voted ‘No.’

The scale of the final result now seems set to assure a swift(er) passage through the Dáil and maybe an earlier start even on legislation. 

Fianna Fáil leader Michael Martin said: “The Oireachtas should move swiftly to enact the will of our people.”

Finally, when the dust settles it will be starkly evident that the views of a sizeable 30%, many older, are not represented by any party leader in Dáil Éireann.